Ask a Leelanau County seller how the market is doing this year and they will probably tell you it's booming. Ask a buyer shopping in the $600,000s and they might tell you something closer to the opposite. Neither one is wrong. They are just reading different halves of the same set of numbers.
In the first six months of 2026, the average price of a home that closed in Leelanau County climbed past $937,000, an increase of more than 10 percent over the same period last year, according to countywide MLS figures. In that same six-month window, the median price actually slipped, from $662,500 down to $640,000. One number went up double digits. The other went down. Both are describing the same 151 closings.
That split is the story worth understanding if you are trying to buy or sell here this year, because it changes depending on which price point you are competing in.
What the Average Is Hiding and the Median Is Revealing
An average adds up every sale and divides by the count. A median lines up every sale from cheapest to most expensive and picks the one in the middle. When a handful of big waterfront or estate closings land in a six-month window, they can drag the average up sharply without moving the median at all, because the median only cares about the property sitting in the exact center of the pack.
That is effectively what happened in Leelanau County this year. A run of higher-end closings pulled the average toward $937,506 while the typical, middle-of-the-pack sale actually cooled slightly. Compare that to how 2025 behaved as a whole. Across all of 2025, the median rose 11.57 percent to $680,000 while the average rose a slower 4.40 percent to $870,410, meaning the middle of the market was doing the heavy lifting and the growth was broad, not concentrated at the top. Six months into 2026, that relationship flipped. The top of the market is now doing the pulling and the middle has gone flat to slightly down.
Here is how the two windows compare:
| Period | Homes Sold | Median Price | Average Price | Total Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full year 2025 | 375 | $680,000 | $870,410 | $326.4M |
| H1 2025 | 130 | $662,500 | ~$849,000* | $110.4M |
| H1 2026 | 151 | $640,000 | $937,506 | $141.6M |
*Derived from H1 2025 sales volume divided by homes sold.
If you are shopping for a typical, non-trophy property in Leelanau County right now, the double-digit average price growth headline overstates what you are actually up against. The segment you are competing in cooled, even while total dollars flowing into the county went up.
Grand Traverse County Is Doing the Opposite
The clearest way to see this is to look next door. In that same January-through-June window, Grand Traverse County posted 571 sales, down from 652 a year earlier, with total sales volume falling from $335.1 million to $277.4 million. But its median price rose to $420,000 while its average price fell to $485,836, suggesting fewer high-end transactions were pulling the average down rather than up.
Put the two counties side by side and you get a clean contrast. In Leelanau, the middle cooled while the top surged. In Grand Traverse, the top cooled while the middle held. If you only read one countywide headline number and assumed it applied evenly across a property, you would misjudge both markets in opposite directions.
Where the Money Actually Went in 2025
Countywide numbers also flatten a peninsula that behaves like a dozen small markets stitched together. Looking at full-year 2025 sales volume by township tells a more specific story about where demand concentrated:
- Elmwood Township led the county at just under $48 million in sales
- Leland Township followed at roughly $45.5 million
- Suttons Bay Township at roughly $45.4 million
- Leelanau Township at roughly $42.7 million
- Bingham Township at roughly $38.3 million
- Glen Arbor Township at roughly $33.3 million
Elmwood's top spot is worth pausing on, because it did not get there on trophy waterfront closings. It leads largely on proximity to Traverse City, newer housing stock, and steady year-round demand rather than the marquee lakefront estates that dominate the county's reputation. Leland, Suttons Bay, and Leelanau Townships clustered close behind, which tracks with village-based living and general water access rather than direct big-water frontage specifically.
The Waterfront Reputation Doesn't Match the Buyer Data
Leelanau County markets itself, fairly, as a waterfront destination. But the 2025 buyer composition tells a more mixed story than the marketing suggests. Of the 375 closed sales that year, 44 percent were what MLS data classifies as other residential properties, meaning primary residences, inland homes, village properties, and non-waterfront single-family homes. Only 21 percent were waterfront homes. Another 13 percent were condos, 12 percent were water view homes without direct frontage, and 10 percent sat on five or more acres.
Nearly half the county's buyers in 2025 bought something other than waterfront, and only about a fifth bought direct frontage. Northern Express has reported that the county's higher-end buyers increasingly come from well beyond Michigan, including Colorado, Texas, and Ohio, which fits the picture of a market where out-of-area money chases the visible waterfront segment while a much larger share of transactions happen quietly in villages, inland acreage, and non-waterfront neighborhoods that rarely make it into a listing photo spread.
Cash Buyers Are Losing Their Grip
One more thread worth pulling on, because it connects directly to why the median cooled even as demand stayed strong. Cash purchases made up 50 percent of Leelanau County sales in 2023. That share dropped to 44 percent in 2024, and MLS data shows financed buyers continued reasserting themselves through 2025 as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate settled around 6.60 percent. Buyers who had been sitting out the higher-rate environment appear to have decided the wait was no longer worth it, and moved forward on lifestyle timelines rather than rate timelines.
A market with more financed buyers behaves differently than a market dominated by cash. Financed buyers are more price sensitive, more likely to negotiate on inspection items, and more likely to walk from a listing that feels overpriced for its segment. That shift lines up with a cooling median even while total sales volume and average price both climbed.
What This Means If You're Shopping This Fall
If you're looking at a $500,000 to $750,000 non-waterfront home in Leelanau County right now, you are shopping in the part of the market that actually softened over the past six months, not the part driving the headline average up. That gives you more room to negotiate on price, request repairs, or walk away from a listing that feels stale than the countywide average price growth would suggest.
If you're chasing direct waterfront, the calculus is different. That segment is smaller, drawing an increasingly national buyer pool, and it's the segment pulling the average upward in the first place. Competing there means competing against buyers who are less rate sensitive and more motivated by lifestyle and long-term hold than by monthly payment math.
Either way, the countywide median or average alone won't tell you which market you're actually in. The township, the property type, and whether you're financing or paying cash all matter more than the single number a portal shows you on the homepage.
A Few Questions Worth Asking Before You Assume Anything
Does a falling median mean prices are actually dropping in Leelanau County? Not exactly. It means the middle of the market cooled slightly even as total sales volume and the high end both grew. A falling median in a rising-volume market usually points to a shift in what's selling, not a broad price decline.
Is a non-waterfront property actually a better buy right now? It depends on your goals, but the data suggests less competitive pressure in that segment over the past six months, since 44 percent of 2025 buyers already chose non-waterfront and that segment is where the median cooled.
Why does Grand Traverse County look so different in the same period? Because its high end cooled while Leelanau's high end accelerated. The two counties are adjacent but their luxury segments are moving in opposite directions right now, which is exactly why a single number for either one can mislead a buyer comparing both.
Countywide numbers are a starting point, not a strategy. If you want a read on what a specific township, price point, or property type is actually doing before you make an offer or list a home, that's a conversation worth having with someone who tracks it property by property. Reach out to Michael Annelin and let's connect.
